Pakistan: Pregnant with Possibilities
Posted on 24. Dec, 2011 by Humayun Gauhar in Pakistan
Opinion Maker
“Prime Minister Gillani’s speech in the parliament was a provocation whereby the Army reacts and throws his government out, thus the inefficient and corrupt performance of his government could be traded off for a political martyrdom; Gen Kayani read the situation well and did not oblige hence now the PPP has no option but to commit a suicide.” Raja Mujtaba
By Humayun Gauhar
On the face of it, the army doesn’t have to do a coup to topple this government. All that is need is for its coalition partners to desert. So what is Prime Minister Gillani going on about? Did he feel a sudden need to proclaim his impotence, admit his incompetence? Or is it the usual desire to commit political suicide? Is he preparing the ground for his own coup against the army, as another tried before him? Or is he preparing the ground for life after power as a political martyr? So angry has the military become at being made scapegoats that it is, figuratively for now, up in arms. Dread the day when they start saying it with real arms.
To be sure militaries and civilian administrations have often been at odds over perceptions and policy. The US administration, the Pentagon and Congress are on different pages about Afghanistan. With the passing of the ‘National Defense Authorization Act’, the Pentagon has silently taken over without anyone realizing it. No need for military coups when constitutional coups can do the trick. Now do you understand what I have been saying for years, that it is the politicians that prepare the ground for army intervention? You are seeing that unfold before your eyes again today. Don’t forget this time. But would the army want to take over the mind-blowing mess that this incompetent government has taken just four years to craft? Not if can help it. Not if it has any sense. Not surprisingly, the army chief made a mature response to the mindboggling speech of the prime minister last Thursday, saying that the army had no intention of intervening. So what is all the noise about?
For one thing, this “we have no intention of intervening” jazz we have heard before when the three service chiefs gave such an assurance in writing during the riots against Z. A. Bhutto in 1977. Not long after Bhutto’s handpicked army chief General Zia ul Haq took over. Two years later the appointee hanged the appointer. That’s how the cookie crumbles in this country.
For another, the problem with this ‘in-house change’ scenario is that the next coalition government would inevitably have Nawaz Sharif calling the shots and he is the last person either our or the US establishment wants. They don’t trust him because they think, not totally incorrectly, that he is unpredictable. You never know with him. Worse, they more than suspect that he is a closet Taliban sympathizer and thus cannot be risked. So there may well not be an ‘in-house change’, but Gillani had better watch it, unless he himself thinks its over and he should make his place in history.
Desperation makes people do desperate things. When Gillani thundered in the National Assembly that the army is a “state within a state”, he didn’t realize that he was making a spectacle of himself because he didn’t see the contradiction in terms: the army is part of the government, under the prime minister and the ministry of defence and answerable to parliament. If it has gone out of control, whose fault is it? Who is required to keep it under control? The chief executive and parliament, no? By saying what he did, Gillani admitted his failure to discharge his constitutional duties. Now the air is pregnant with possibilities.
Will the army and ISI chiefs be sacked? Will they act before they are? Will the politicians gang up together for the first time? Where does that traditional legitimizer of constitutional deviations, the Supreme Court, stand today? How will allies react, how our traditional master America? If functionaries are not under the government’s constitutional command, it is normal to replace them. Ah! But therein lies the rub. Its not easy to pass the buck for the current mess exclusively on to one of the government’s own organs thinking that it might mask its own horrible governance and corruption. Sadly, the public perception of the PM’s honesty and competence is not an epitome of probity. So when, instead of discharging his constitutional duty of removing the “state within a state” the prime minister decides to bleat on about it in parliament, he only proclaims his government’s impotence and makes a sorry sight of himself. Has this just dawned on him after four years? Why did he not act earlier? Or has the army only just become a “state within a state”?
What conclusions is one to draw then? That Gillani is reacting to intelligence that the army is about to act? Many a government has bitten the dust because it placed too much trust in intelligence. Is he preparing the public mind for action by the government? Or is he preparing the ground for his role after losing power and becoming a political martyr? One cannot be sure and no one knows what the future holds. So don’t blame Pakistanis for being on tenterhooks. Any normal person would.
Gillani cannot be sure that the army will not ‘react badly’ to its chief being humiliated. Nawaz Sharif had once caused an army chief to resign, which the army never forgot. Sharif tried it again and committed political suicide. The point is: in any normal country that is run constitutionally, sacking an army chief would be done according to laid down procedure. Follow the procedure and woe to anyone who ‘reacts badly’. It is none of their business. Sharif sacked his army chief by breaking procedure, as the Supreme Court later found. Take action, sure, but don’t be an imbecile. Follow the constitution.
Gillani’s problem is that the people have little love lost for him and his government, so bad has their performance been, reeking not just of incompetence but mal-intent as well. So bad is our condition that virtually everyone from any station in life is praying for the government’s demise. Chances of people coming out on the streets in this government’s support are limited. And in all this talk about following the constitution, let’s not forget that the spirit of the constitution is already being flouted by the president exercising power beyond the constitutional limits placed on him and by his continuing to hold party office when he is required to be politically neutral. So who is calling the kettle black?
I have been thinking and learning and have come to the conclusion that the political process, such as it is, has to be allowed to run its course, that parliaments, presidents and governments must complete their terms and only change constitutionally. Else we the people will never learn. My conclusion has nothing to do with ‘liberalism’, fake democracy or West aping. It has to do with learning from history’s evolutionary processes and its political and social forces. Abort or divert them and the pain lasts longer because you end up slowing evolution. The seeds of self-healing and self-destruction are inherent in every organism and nations are political organisms at the very least. Allow the system to self-heal or self-destruct so that we can naturally arrive at a social contract that gives us something better.
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4 Responses to “Pakistan: Pregnant with Possibilities”
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Tariq Qureshi
25. Dec, 2011
Sorry people my fingers couldnt keep up with my thought. in earlier posting:
The assessment is 900% true. The government of PPP desperately seeking'political martyrdom'. The same people who were asking for full term, now are seeking not midterms, BUT martial-law, so people can forget in 2-5 years, what disasterous governance they had. What PM is saying is can be translated as "Oh Bull…come 'get' me"!
Better idea is for CJ to order the dissolution of government as the President has NOT resigned from the party as per constitution. With that done, Zardari is out and he is the core of all PPP troubles. He is now prosecutable for all NRO cases, and misuse of authority during this rule. Bottom-line we need the 1.3 Billion back!
Rehmat
25. Dec, 2011
While the Zionist-controlled US Congress has slapped Pakistan with a $700 million aid cut – the White House is trying to fool Pakistani generals with usual propaganda lies. On Friday, State Department spokesperson Mark Toner told reporters: “We desire a closer, more productive relationship with Pakistan both militarily and as well as politically. And we’re constantly working to build that closer cooperation“. Interestingly, earlier this month, Mark Toner had assured the Jewish Lobby that “Obama administration has consistently stood up against anti-Semitism and efforts to delegitimize Israel, and will continue to do so“.
The Reuters reported on December 22 that Pakistan army is fed up with US-supported Zardari regime and want it out – “but by legal means and not by a military coup”. Pakistan has already been ruled for more than half of its existence by four US-sponsored military coups in the past.
In order to get itself from the US aid blackmail – Pakistan needs to boost its trade with China, Iran, Turkey, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Malaysia. Washington has given $18 billion aid to Pakistan since the 1980s – in order to defeat USSR and Taliban in Afghanistan. In return Pakistanis have suffered more than $100 billion in infrastructure, human lives and fighting CIA-Mossad-RAW terrorism inside Pakistan. In 2010, China gave Pakistan $9 billion in aid for infrastructure and mining sectors.
Pakistani leadership must realize that political independence and sovereignty requires economic independence. Pakistan’s neighboring Islamic Iran has proved that point and within 32 year has become the most powerful country in the region.
http://rehmat2.wordpress.com/2011/12/24/pakistan-needs-to-drop-its-american-baggage/
S Balu
25. Dec, 2011
Pakistan has alread DELIVERED a zionist Baby called IMRAN KHAN
see his recent meeting with BUNTER I mean Munter!(The VICEROY)
Moshe Ben-Ze'ev
27. Dec, 2011
You have only very briefly mentioned the role of the RAW-MOSSAD-CIA / HINDU-JEW-CHRISTIAN / axis (which I proudly represent) in destabilising Pakistan. We paid Jinnah's descendants soon after he died very handsomely to leave Pakistan and settle in India as big businessmen (Bombay Dyeing). So there is no Jinnah bloodline in Pakistan any more, all have left the Pure Country to settle in Infidel India. All your talk about gas pipelines are useless because I control the freedom struggle in Balochistan through which the pipe must pass. I concur with all of Pakistani politician's statements that Israel (and Hindus and Christians) are responsible for all of Pakistan's woes. We personally paid each of the tens of thousands of visitors to Imran's rally at Karachi Rs100 each to shout for TIF party. Pakistan has come crawling back to the US after Salala because I flicked a button in Tel Aviv. RAW-MOSSAD-CIA was responsible for the birth of Bangladesh, and very shortly, soon to come, the emergence of Balochistan as a separate country. At the flick of a button, I can switch off all power supply to Karachi, make the Taliban bomb you in Quetta, ground all PIA flights across Iran, and jam all drains and sewers in Lahore. I can make your president visit his chateaux in France while Sindh slips under flood waters. I can also cause dengue fever in Sindh. I also control the drones attacking you in FATA. There is nothing you can do about it. All your Ghauris and Abdalis are dummies … I control the gangs in Karachi. We have beed responsible for all of Pakistan's defeats in all the wars against India; but we will allow you to shoot& kill your own countrymen. Tell me, what can you Pakistanis do about it? You are under total control of the RAW-CIA-MOSSAD axis.