Next War-Iran
Posted on 01. Dec, 2011 by Nadir Mir in Opinion
Geopolitics of Peace
By Brig Nadir Mir
The Geopolitics of the times may indicate that the next war is Iran. Although Pakistan being an established nuclear power would logically be higher on the scales of denuking agenda for so called globalists. Still Geopolitical logic dictates otherwise.
In Iran’s case, the American agenda is to prevent it from going nuclear. (Something which Pakistan achieved over quarter of a century ago – Enriched Uranium) The recent IAEA accusative report, Israel’s brinkmanship (you do it or we do it), American election fervour (attacking Iran is an election issue for 2012, at least for Mitt Romney Republican Presidential candidate), conservative Arab animosity for Revolutionary Iran (in future nuclear armed), Iran’s energy linkage to Russia – China, Iran’s defiance of USA plus western world, and finally the fear or perception of Tehran crossing the nuclear Rubicon combine for ‘Strike on Iran’.
The most likely version is an air and missile strikes or campaign (depending how the war progresses). Still a limited invasion cannot be ruled out (US has freed most of its forces from Iraq for the purpose).
PM Benjamin Netanyahu, National security advisor Uzi Arad and Defence Minister Ehud Barak plus numerous Israeli leaders of late are cajoling for a strike on Iran. American friends have joined the Iran demonization campaign. For nearly a decade, this crying wolf – Iran going nuclear – or need to strike has been going on. This time it looks for real. The problem is both Israel and Iran are supremely confident and itching to fight.
In one scenario, Israeli air force (100 F15E, F16IS, F16cs), plus land based missiles (jhericos) and two Dolphin submarines (firing cruise missiles) off Iran’s coast initiate the first blow. This may be a one – two blow i.e., missile strikes preceding or following the air strikes. Destroying as much as possible of Iranian nuclear projects (Natanz, Esfahan, Busher etc) with bombs and missiles. Tehran’s retaliation with missiles plus Hezbollah, Hamas rockets are absorbed by Israel. Threatening to up the ante (Nuke Iran) Tel Aviv (evoking paranoia of a Second Holocaust) drags USA into the war, to use its larger military muscle. The Iranians fight back (Iran will respond with full force has already been said by Ayatollah Ali Khameni). Though the high intensity war may fizzle out in weeks or months, a low intensity war may continue for years. The Arab – Islamic world would be inflamed, the western world divided. War drags on – at least the asymmetrical part is protracted.
‘The Point of No Return’ an article by the Atlantic makes clear the high probability of war with Iran. The Israelis are evasive on even if they would inform Washington about such a strike. An Israeli strike appears imminent now or in spring 2012 (winter is not considered ideal for such operations).
In fact the initial strategic moves have been initiated on the Middle East Geopolitical Chessboard. NATO is planning to intervene to achieve regime change in Syria. This is aimed at depriving Iran of its chief ally Syria and somewhat suffocating the Geopolitical space available to Hezbollah and Hamas. After Syria and Iran’s (claimed by US / NATO) isolation, the stage will be set for war on Iran initiated by Israel, US or jointly. Tehran’s revolutionary fervour which engulfed the British Embassy and reports of Libyan (NATO trained) fighters being shipped to fight against the Damascus Regime and a lot more are indicators of the gathering Great Storm.
Despite an election year if USA strikes Iran, it would obviously be a heavier punch than Israel. More so, it may not be limited to Iran’s nuclear establishment, but also aim at the Revolutionary Guards, military industrial – economic complex, ports, and communication infrastructure. In essence ‘Cave Age or Scorched Earth’. According to David Rothkopf (author of Super Class), it would be folly to assume President Obama cannot strike Iran due to an election year. By the same token, many Americans and Europeans are against an attack on Iran.
The British are unsure, the French hesitant, Germans Anti aggression, the Russians (Putin led) against an attack, the Chinese peace loving, even India and Pakistan may have similar views – (no attack on Iran). The world yearns for peace, but the Israeli leaders are preparing (even if the Israeli nation is divided on the issue). Good Americans want jobs at home not conflict abroad – but the war lobby wants war.
Attack on Iran plans have been on hold since President Bush era. Now in 2012, US Presidential campaign ‘most Republican Candidates’ except Ron Paul are for ‘bombing Iran’.
Interestingly America’s ex defenders Mr. Robert Gates, Admiral Mike Mullen, General Zinni etc have serious reservations on the ‘Persian Misadventure’. Even the present Defence Secretary Panetta (despite europhia of Bin Laden killing)’warned of unintended consequences!
Even more ironically the Israeli nation is divided by half on the subject. (After all the expected Iranian riposte of missiles, rockets and asymmetrical attacks is going to first of all target Israel). As a smart Israeli went to the extent of saying that if America was so worried about a ‘Second Holocaust’ it might fight Iran itself (without Israeli involvement). The Israeli Defence Forces even while confident are apprehensive and rightly so!
Still wise people in Europe, America and elsewhere are asking pertinent questions. A single Israeli Air strike will not be sufficient to totally destroy the Iranian nuclear projects, (delay it by 2 to 3 years), what next? If the US does not bomb Iran, what is the war termination strategy? Will it become a regional war by design or default? Will it escalate to nuclear realm?
What will be the impact on the Arab spring and Middle East? (Probably go hyper Anti Israel – Anti American!)
The reality is, there are no good answers. What if radioactivity due to Israel – US bombing reaches Nuclear Armed Pakistan and India? (Of course the Pakistani elite have no time for such issues. They are uninitiated into Pakistani Geopolitical issues, what to ponder about Iran?)
Unfortunately the fact is that an attack on Iran will adversely affect Pakistan in many ways. Pakistan will be surrounded by hostile India, unstable Afghanistan and warring Iran. Radioactivity leaks due to bombing may reach Pakistan! (Even handling Dengue Mosquitoes has been an uphill task). Inflame Shias, bring Iranian refugees, disrupt gas, oil import and bring Pakistan closer to the denuking agenda!
Reportedly the Russian PM Putin when recently briefed on emerging Geopolitics and probability of war told his generals, ‘Prepare for Armageddon’!
Putin – a great visionary leader is absolutely right. US – NATO attack on Iran would unleash ‘the hounds of hell’ not only for the victim state but the region around, the world at large and the attackers themselves!
The only viable solution in Global interest is ‘Geopolitics of Peace’. A comprehensive peace settlement from Mediterranean Sea to the Gulf to include Israel – Palestine, Israel – Iran issues. Plus pull out of all foreign troops from Afghanistan and Iraq. The need for denuking wars would stand obviated. The specter of hell on earth (for everybody) exorcised!
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7 Responses to “Next War-Iran”
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Brig Nadir Mir
Website: http://www.pakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com/
S Balu
01. Dec, 2011
1.even if usa freed it's troops from Iraq/Afghanistan, Iran as I know is Mountainous and very DIFFICULT for any TROOP or Missles to make a DENT! in Iranian Defence!
Go and see zionist entity! TERRAIN FLAT, IRON DOM etc FAILURE so far! american patriot missle system NOT EFFECTIVE! If these zionist arogants could NOT DEFEATED 6,000 Hezbollah how are they going to DEFEAT a million+ Iranian are DIFFRENT BREED , I wish zionist initiate this as it would put an end to MOCKING BIRD FOREVER that has DONE INCALCULABLE DEMAGE to MUSLIM SOCIETIES everywhere! also Muslims MUST REALISE that this is FRONTAGE used by the west to wage a CRUSADE on Muslims!
As for ruling Pakistani elite THEY HAVE NO SELF RESPECT,they SUFFER FROM INFERIORITY COMPLEX just like Indians next door!
LASTLY LEARN NEVER TO BUY ANYTHING of the west at A FACE VALUE!
Lazio Giggalo
02. Dec, 2011
What is going on is American Corporate LLC. What I call is the United States of Corporate America is on a war path both abroad and at home in the U.S. First the Americans put a strangle hold on the Euro in order to take away worker rights and Europes social security net. Allowing unregulated free markets to open up for a bonanza of trillion dollars in profits!
What’s happening in Syria is a regime change before an attack on Iran! It’s the path of the least resistance strategy! It’s under the same military plan as Kosovo. NATO sends in terrorists, attack the country’s military the Serbian military responds then NATO invades and there is your regime change! This being carried out against Syria as we speak!
Once Syria and Iran is under U.S. and NATO control the the Mega Corporations move in and boost up credit loans and open up unregulated free- markets across the middle east using a currency system that can be easily managed.
The Corporations run Governments not the people as the world has witnessed in America! The hard line response by U.S. Police against anti-Corporate Protesters! The Big Five Bankers set the agenda through the Federal Reserve. Then the Bank’s middle men, the Lobbyists instruct the politicians and the Corporate Media uses propaganda to brain wash the population to believe the corporate line of their reality which is not the earlier at all!
The only country that can hold this force at bay is Russia, whom always caved in for a price and allowed NATO to proceed with the American Corporate Agenda! The world will see if Russia caves this time. Russia sounds serious about the consequences of a Lybian style intervention into Syria! But the Stage is being set again as we speak!
Mean time a Technocracy is starting to show it’s ugly head in the U.S. With unabated corruption in politics and banking institution never seen before, American Constituional Laws are being burned by payed off judges in all facets of the justice system. We are in scary times to say the least!
Steve Wiseman
02. Dec, 2011
When the USA wants a war, they get a war. I cannot think of a single country that has had a war with the USA that did not do all it reasonably could and more to avoid the war. No country since the once mighty British in 1812 has ever willingly gone to war against the USA. Relatively weak countries just not do that. Iran is absolutely no threat to the USA, nor to Isabel and its 400 A bombs, but it will take a miracle to avoid the coming war.
Mayor of NYC,USA
02. Dec, 2011
The insane media campaign for war with Iran must end before it starts another World War that goes nuclear. Both Russia and China have objected strongly to further sanctions on Iran and on Israel’s campaign for military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, former SOD Robert Gates and General David Petraeus have made public statements indicating that attacking Iran is not in the best interests of the USA. If America’s civilian and military leaders believe this to be the case, then Israel as a loyal ally of the USA must stand down and respect our opinion on this matter. Israel should heed the warnings from their own leaders like the former Director of the Mossad, Meir Dagan who has been quoted as saying that attacking Iran “is the stupidest thing that I ever heard.”
Now realistically even if the Iranians were to put together several nuclear devices by tomorrow, their arsenal would be no match for Israeli and American nuclear might. Does the West seriously believe that Iranians are totally suicidal as a people and nation and would risk total annihilation, by immediately attacking like a mad dog both Israel and the entire Middle East? Does the West really believe that Iranians love death more than life? For God sake they are humans too just like everyone else on this planet, no matter how much those who demonize the Iranians say otherwise.
All God-loving human beings must understand that the frightening reality of nuclear weapons use is the guaranteed mutual assured destruction (MAD) of all on Earth.
“Unconditional war can no longer lead to unconditional victory. It can no longer serve to settle disputes. It can no longer be of concern to great powers alone. For a nuclear disaster, spread by winds and waters and fear, could well engulf the great and the small, the rich and the poor, the committed and the uncommitted alike. Mankind must put an end to war, or war will put an end to mankind.”
– John F. Kennedy
waly27
02. Dec, 2011
Only a fascist Jew run place like the USSSA would attack a nation like Iran. The Fascist USSSA has ALREADY overthrown their gov’t several times. When will the sheeple of the USSSA wake up? USSSA? United Soviet Socialist Satanic States of Amerika.
Quest
02. Dec, 2011
When will Israel come clean and tell the world how many nuclear bombs she has or let the IAEA inspect its nuclear facility?
And its time for the Iranian leaders to expose Israel’s hypocrisy by telling the world how many nuclear bombs Israel has.
Peter
02. Dec, 2011
We all need to push for action to hang in the Hague those who use Nukes on ANYONE on earth.
If no nukes are used, no worry there is just no way USA or tiny Israel can touch iran. She is just too big and strong. Not only that they are the ones who trained Hezbollah.
In fact if Israel strikes, that would be the last we hear of them forever and the Biblical Truth that Isreal is destroyed will come to pass.