PAKISTAN’S LONG WAR HAS BEGUN
Posted on 07. May, 2011 by Brig Samson Sharaf in Opinion
(1/5 was not Pakistan’s Day)
By Brig Samson S Sharaf
For Pakistanis, this is not time to feel embarrassed and to hang heads in shame over the simplicity and quickness of the operation that killed Osama Bin Laden. It is rather, a time for a long overdue bugle cry that Pakistan is at War. 1/5 was not Pakistan’s Day inasmuch as 9/11 exposed the vulnerabilities in USA’s homeland security.
Writing in Nation in December 2010, I had assessed the next eighteen months and beyond as crucial for Pakistan and reiterated it in my article ‘Pakistan Must Reassert Itself’ on 20 February. I had written, ‘the next 18 months and beyond will test Pakistan to the verge”.
Between the 14th and 17th months we have witnessed the Raymond Davis Case, a drone attack on a peaceful jirga, a fully fledged conventional multi directional night attack on a border outpost in Dir, a border skirmish at Anghoor Adda and now the operation to kill Osama Bin laden.
Writing earlier in November 2010, ‘Pakistan a Rudderless State with a resilient Nation’ I had cautioned the security planners of Pakistan to beware of Cold Start Type operations from across the Durand Line. I had also written about the heavily fortified US and ISAF citadels in Afghanistan that would be used as pivots of such operations against Pakistan. No one in Pakistan’s security establishment and the media took notice of the warnings.
2009-2010 had been remarkable years of Pakistan’s fight against militancy. During this time, joint intelligence operations led by Pakistani had resulted in elimination of numerous prized targets both from TTP and Al Qaida. The efficiency of information gathering was such that many high value targets deemed missing believed killed had been brought back into focus and neutralised, some amongst them US nationals. But by mid 2010, this cooperation began to wane due to the direct influx of CIA agents into Pakistan. This influx was not part of the working agreements between ISI and CIA. Pakistan’s security establishment felt that they were being stabbed in the back.
Counter security efforts on part of Pakistan indentified hundreds of locations in Pakistan in which US agents had hired or located inside Pakistan covertly. Some of these locations were heavily fortified and the activities inside them were always dubious. After much rallying, Pakistan was able to force the closure of some of these locations but not all. Meanwhile, the network of CIA’s local informers was spreading, a reason why CIA forced budgetary reallocations for its operations in Pakistan. With huge funds to play around, CIA could now buy off anyone including Al Qaida agents whose data Pakistan had shared with USA. They put tags on many such targets and monitored all their movements and places of visit. Consequently, what they have been able to track with their superior technical resources and heavy monetary disbursements is a trail of redoubts within Pakistan where militants have contacts and hiding places. Then came the Raymond Davis shooting and some issues became public.
There is definitely a trove of very important information that USA has extracted from shared sources and double crossing. One such is the hideout of Osama Bin Laden, his courier trails and much more. The biggest vulnerability that Pakistan faces is that some of its own assets within this Al Qaida trail may have been exposed, or double crossed and could be used to blackmail Pakistan into coercion.
With all this information coming from electronic chatter, media and social websites, I was able to piece a MOST DANGEROUS HYPOTHESES that predicted covert sting and intelligence and overt JSOC operations inside Pakistan that subsequently became the theme of my articles on the subject. Having been vindicated, this does not end here.
I have followed the information about the Kakul raid on a real timeline with startling conclusions.
According to information available on twitter and TV Channels, the explosion and helicopter crash were successively reported before mid night on 1 May 2011.
The call to President Zardari came well past midnight implying that it was made much after the operation had been completed. I am also sure that Zardari was told by President Obama to ask PAF not to interfere in the flight path of the US aircrafts.
Concurrently, by the time Pakistan Air Force scrambled, the US troops were well outside Pakistan’s air space.
As an operational planner, I am wary of the fact that Pakistan’s surveillance system on the Western Front did not respond. The systems are deployed in layers in multiple redundancies to ensure that some elements of information do manage to beep through. The electronic systems are reinforced with human resources wherein even a section commander in a border post is trained to immediately report a violation/activity in real time. Why such a credible system was forced into passivity should be the subject of an inquiry and a story of the future. Surprisingly, much credible chatter emanated when the US helicopters made the exit.
I am also aware of the safety layers in US military procedures and purely on technical grounds feel that this operation was carried out by at least four or even more helicopters including transport versions, with credible fool proof backups all along. Simply put, the operation had a sizable operational and logistical trail.
Already information is available that the operation had ground, intelligence and pathfinder support from US assets very close to the target area.
Does this also imply that there was some sort of complicity by Pakistan to facilitate such an operation? Does this mean that US helicopters did not enter Pakistan’s air space on the day of the raid and were pre positioned for such an operation? However, what can be concluded with accuracy is that CIA agents have penetrated every nook and corner of Pakistan under the eyes of Pakistan’s counter intelligence, a fact that will be vindicated in the near future.
Reaction of Pakistan’s Defence Forces to the raid was slow in coming. Complicity at the cost of such a disgrace appears a bad bargain and unrealistic. The Army and Air Force cannot absolve themselves. The reaction of ISI that will never become public is perhaps that of betrayal. Many of its intelligence assets that it had shared with CIA have now double crossed and as Shaukat Qadir says made Al Qaida richer.
My analysis leads me to conclude that some levels of selective complicity existed, and it is this that combined with pre positioning of US assets inside Pakistan.
Foreign aircrafts have operated in Pakistan with impunity during the earthquake in 2005, floods, training missions etc. It is nigh possible that these flights were also used to dump hardware at secret locations that could subsequently become pivots for such operations. Troops for such operations could move into Pakistan under the garb of training, diplomatic staff and travellers coming to Pakistan from USA/ Europe, and local recruitments. Remember that some US soldiers as reported by the media spoke fluent urdu in a Pakistani accent.
Then there is also the much hyped issue of CIA contractors in Pakistan. Many of them have since returned but not before completing the ground work for an effective CIA presence in Pakistan all through the Long War.
The retired CGS of GHQ, Lt. Gen (R) Shahid Aziz had once claimed that he himself had reported evidence of US amphibious landing on the Balochistan Coast with the trails leading to interior Balochistan. If these landings indeed took place, where did these forces ultimately go; or where did they dump and move their cargo?
There is also the case of over 22,000 missing containers. Even if a mere hundred of them carried military hardware and knocked down helicopters, where has all the cargo gone and has anyone noticed it. The theory gets credence from a fact that in one of the ambushes, a container had a complete disassembled Blackhawk helicopter of the type used in Kakul.
My hypothesis is that from 2010 onwards, USA had built up a considerable covert military presence in Pakistan facilitated through visas bypassing the standing operating procedures, indiscriminate entry of containers into Pakistan, holding back of scanning equipment to scan these containers and bribes offered by the container operators from Karachi to the Afghan Border. Even the NLC was foxed into this in the name of business. As a military professional, I know that you do not need huge radioactive machines to scan these containers. A good thermal imaging device abundant in Pakistan can do the trick.
It is these reasons that put the Government of Pakistan and the Defence establishment at odds, something like a reverse replay of Kargil. While President Zardari like ever will use the occasion to push the army and ISI back, shore up new alliances to hedge his government, the security establishment may fight back in the name of national Interest. If this happens, it will set a confrontational environment with re alignment of strange bedfellows. As Pakistan will be destabilised further, Obama’s war in Afghanistan would be over and the Long War in Pakistan begun.
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14 Responses to “PAKISTAN’S LONG WAR HAS BEGUN”
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Brig Samson Sharaf
neel123
07. May, 2011
The big question which the article has not addressed is, after the withdrawal of the Americans from Afghanistan, will the Americans still continue to pump in tens of billions of dollars in the garb of reimbursement for WOT, and the military hardware ( ostensibly to fight the Taliban ….. wink wink ) to shore up the Pakistani Army ……….. ??
Dr.Arshad Afzal
08. May, 2011
I agree with most of Sharaf's insights but he has missed ONE big point i .e the demise of Yankee empire! On the eve of dismemberment of Soviet empire , Gorbachev was honest enough to admit that Afghanistan had proved his empire's bleeding wound. Now this nigga Obama will one day proclaim that that AfPak, banksters , corporate thugs, economic downturn,inflation, rampant corruption,unemployment, crime,demoralized military,stagnant industrial and economic output, debt to the tune of 15 trillion dollars ,lazy /parasitic youth have proved to be the bleeding wounds of Yankee empire!A single arrow of porus's archery had hastened the end of Alexander's career who died of this fatal wound in Mesopotamia !A single kick on the fat/torn ass of Yankees in Indus land will prove as fatal as valiant Porus's arrow!
babur
08. May, 2011
Pakistanees are getting wiser? Aren't they? They know yankees are destroyed and are now ridden with loan of trillians of dollars which Pakistanees got billions to stab Mohammad (PBUM) in back.
As we know America was alone in this war with Islam and Pakistan offered to betray Prophet mohammad in lieu of money as a result Mohammad's Islaam is in danger the world over.
Let's not forget English and Americans have ruled over world and divided and created countries at their will including muslim nations and have ability to send pakistaan to stone ages when they want as President Bush said.
Indus valley will do justice to Arabian religion which made Satan to possess muslimsHindus in pakistan. Pakistan will fight long war with satanic army to set it free from satan. Help them God!
Dr.Arshad Afzal
08. May, 2011
I couldn't agree more Babur! The days of demise of Arab culture and western imperialism are drawing near. Western imperialism (400 years) and Arab imperialism aka religion (1400 years) are going to be hurled into history' s dustbin, their rightful place. Nations survive but false ideologies don't. Ask Germans, Italians and Russians.
NadePaulKuciGravMcKi
08. May, 2011
"many criminals are being set-up to take the fall for 9/11 lies"
A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious.
But it cannot survive treason from within … Cicero
;
;
Remember the USAF 9-11 Stand Down Orders.
Dr.Arshad Afzal
08. May, 2011
Addendum! It's heartning to note how Arabs are taking on their priests /kings/dictators to cast them into HELL. These autocratic Arab rulers bankrolled their petro-dollars to destabilize Indus land throgh their agents are on the run!The recent events have exposed their false ideology/culture which is nothing but a tool for Arab imperialism. Nature is punishing these devil worshippers.
wilson
08. May, 2011
There is $13 trillion in oil in Caspian Sea Basin. The pincer movement: Iraq from the west and Afghanistan (thru Turkimenistan) from the East. Tehran is 265km from Caspian Sea. But #`1 priority of wars: to kill Goyim.
Moshe Ben Ze'Ev
15. May, 2011
My name is Moshe Ben Ze'Ev. I am a Jew, living in Tel-Aviv, in the holy land of Judea-Samaria. You are followers of the descendants of Hagar and Ishmael. I am descended from Sarah, and I worship the one true God as He should be worshipped. I look at your country and laugh. Your Islamic country's founder was a pork-eating wine-drinking Savile-Rowed lawyer whose descendants chose to live in India. You declare the only Muslim Nobel Prize winner a non-Muslim minority and desecrate his headstone because he was Ahmediya. You claim India's part of Kashmir, but have willingly gifted part of your part to China and have allowed Chinese troops full sway over Gilgit-Baltistan. It is true that the MOSSAD and Haganah controls every aspect of your life, from the power outages in Karachi to the floods that have devastated your country. And you will be destroyed: not by missiles from India, USA or Israel, but by your own missiles that will be launched from inside Pakistan itself.
babur
15. May, 2011
I can't agree more, Moshe. You are genetically superior because Jews are YADAVAS the Tribe of Lord Krishna. Your comment is brilliant and holds truth for many hard to digest.
Those who live by fake believes (God) die with fake believes (God). It's (drone fire and floods) Pakistani destiny designed by God. USA, Isreal and India can't help them - no body can succeed to change them. Let the fate take its full course. Smile!!!
Atta rasool malik
18. May, 2011
It is an excellent article. I love it. It is written by great patriot and noble Christian soul. Please once again read what this man of great credibility has to say about USA and West. We the Muslims greatly value people of book .We agree to our neighbours and distant neighbours that we are passing difficult time. But please do remember we have the guts to fight any one who crosses the limit…. Our nation has the spark that is why so many are manipulating, blackmailing, bribing and making our leadership corrupt. If we were so useless why people should spend so much of energy to worry about, plz no one should joke with us that USA and West is helping us. As regards my Jewish cousin,Moshe Ben Ze'Ev,the descendent of Great respected mother Hazrat SARA, O dear sir before criticizing MA Jinnah, do you know about your own founding father Mr David Bin Gurion? How good was he Jew? And what your government is doing in Israel? Don’t you think simply destroying the very basis of Judaism?
Last word, we are poor, faced with numerous problems but my dear friends we are not dead and we shall again rise soon
It is an excellent article. I love it. It is written by great patriot and noble Christian soul. Please once again read what this man of great credibility has to say about USA and West. We the Muslims greatly value people of book .We agree to our neighbours and distant neighbours that we are passing difficult time. But please do remember we have the guts to fight any one who crosses the limit…. Our nation has the spark that is why so many are manipulating, blackmailing, bribing and making our leadership corrupt. If we were so useless why people should spend so much of energy to worry about, plz no one should joke with us that USA and West is helping us. As regards my Jewish cousin,Moshe Ben Ze'Ev,the descendent of Great respected mother Hazrat SARA, O dear sir before criticizing MA Jinnah, do you know about your own founding father Mr David Bin Gurion? How good was he Jew? And what your government is doing in Israel? Don’t you think simply destroying the very basis of Judaism?
Last word, we are poor, faced with numerous problems but my dear friends we are not dead and we shall again rise soon
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MOLVI_WHISKY
05. Oct, 2011
Babur : "
USA, Isreal and India can't help them – no body can succeed to change them. " ??
Why dare ratty hindus compare India with the first world ? Lately the official poverty line, below which 80% of Indians fall, was revised downwards of 57 cents, yes US$0.57 a day, goes a long towards telling you India must classifed with the poorest countries in west Africa. I thought the onion protests brought the Indian governments to it's knees begging Pakistan for supplies. India is no advanced country. What do you produce that China doesn't and at lower prices than you. India has got a fake economy.The Jewish traders have been told to help India with screw driver plants, whereby the design comes from US, China produces the components, while India just does the assembly, leaving a few cents on a dollar to the Indian GDP. Do you know it's only in India that you could hire a domestic maid for just 20 rupees a day that's less than 50 cents, a day would be 16 hours. Ask anyone. Small wonder international slave market is so depressed.