Whikileaks and India
Posted on 31. Jul, 2010 by Raja Mujtaba in Opinion
By Moin Ansari
Bharat (aka India) has faced colossal reverses in its Foreign Policy. Will the orchestrated Leaks give it a respite?
While the Wikileaks were on a 96 hour news cycle, and most US sources after having discussed them threadbare are beginning to move on to new subjects–the Bharati (aka Indian) media is clinging on to them and the orchestrated immature statements by the British Prime Minister. Delhi is getting full mileage of the so called 90,000 “leaks”. Only a few of them actually discuss Pakistan, but the Pakistaniphobic campaign led by the New York Times and the UK Guardia only focuses on the old and archaic news items filed by Afghan “agents”. Till recenlty the Afghan Intelligence agencies were fully in the hands of the Bharati RAW. In the days gone by the RAW men were so powerful that in a well documented incident Mr. Karzai was scolded by the head of the RAW in Kabul.
Most of the old filed reports were fed by Bharati intelligent agencies. These reports filed from Kabul have now become part of the Wikileaks–used by the New York Times to malign Pakistan and try to halt its growing influence in Afghanistan.
The way the news has been sliced, diced and presented by the New York Times, it ensures that the real story of the Wikileaks can be obfuscated by the sensational Anti-Pakistanism.
The Bharati elation at the Wikileaks will be short lived. However Bharat may stage a spectacular event to put pressure on Pakistan. Another Mumbai will create issues in South Asia, and push it back another decade.
Much of the Leaks deal with the targeted killings and murder of civilians by the US, ISAF and NATO forces. However the Sunday news shows and even Al-Jazeera did not focus on the human rights atrocities and the war crimes. Pakistan is the favorite whipping boy of the US media–especially the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal.
Now that the US media is beginning to get tired of the Leaks, another batch will be released targeting Pakistan. The Leaks have tried to drive a wedge between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The usual suspects in Afghanistan–the Pakistanphobes are cropping up in Afghanistan making the same old noises as before.
The Bharati carping will continue.
The short term affects of the Leaks have been a lot of discussion in the media. However the Obama Administration has not shown an indication of a change in its Afghan policy.
The Europeans are leaving the Hindu Kush next year. The Americans will follow–Cameron’s grandstanding not withstanding.
America has few options in Afghanistan. She has to work with Pakistan in order to get a face saving exit. The Leaks anger the very people that the US and the UK banks on to help them out. No foreign army can assist NATO, ISAF and the US forces–except the Pakistani Army.
Maligning the Pakistani Army and the Pakistani Intelligence Services (ISI) is counterproductive to American interests. While the US Administration has rushed to do damage control, with the White House and the State Department calling the Pakistani President and the Prime Minister–the Afghan president was forced to make some ugly noises which he will have to regret.
Pakistan demanded an explanation from Mr. Hamid Karzai, and the press heard some inaudible and incomprehensible gurgling noises which went something like this “the press has made something out of this”.
Despite the media headlines in the Bharati press, the fact remains that most US officials have come out to defend Pakistan. The Bharati media of course is publishing the fallout by editing the statements and publishing only part that suit their agenda.
While India’s recent diplomatic reversals get a short respite, the fact remains that in the long run, the Bharati machinations will create more enemies in Pakistan. Already the number of doves in Pakistan are becoming less and less. Even Mr. Zardari who started out as very accommodating towards Bharat has not turned hawkish. The Pakistan Ambassador to the US–often called the US Ambassador to Pakistan is incensed at the US and also at Bharat. If the most pro-India elements in Pakistan are now mad at Bharat, the hawks will have a field day. Bharati short-sightedness in the Wikileaks affair will have consequences for Delhi. An abrogation of any Afghan trade to Bharat is the most likely first casualty of the Wikileaks. There will be more negative affects for Bharat.
Those who want Bharat evicted from Afghanistan will be emboldened and become more firm in their resolve. Anti-Americanism will grow in the area, and this can never be good for America.
The long term blowback from the leaks will harm US interests in Pakistan and in Afghanistan. The leaks confirm the US stereotype–self-centered, untrustworthy and fickle.
The US has to begin withdrawing troops from Afghanistan. The Afghans want to talk to the Afghan National Resistance (aka Taliban). All roads to peace in Kabul run through Islamabad. Mr. Karzai knows this.
In the end Mr. Karzai will kiss and make up, and the US will continue to bank on the only game in town called the Pakistan Army.
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31. Jul, 2010
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Amjad Khan.
31. Jul, 2010
In this whole scenario what most forget is that what do the Afghans want?
Talk to the average Afghan these days and most will say that they could live with the soviets but not the Americans. Afghanistan is headed for another civil war and puppets like Karzai will have no significant role. India, historically, has had no role in Afghanistan and in the future too will play the part of a pygmy.
Dr.A.K.Tewari
31. Jul, 2010
The situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan is very fregile . India knows its limitation of its role in Afghanistan at the same time it will remain vigilent in seeking its role in the development of Afghanistan and to curb the influence of Pakistan on its Govt. Since the people of Afghanistan can tolrate Soviets but not U.S.A .In the same manner they will prefer Indians as against the U.S. allied Pakistan .America and Iran will remain there in the background to maitain the power balance between the two main contending players in the post war era . How the things will evolve ,will be interesting to judge in the future at present top priority is to reduce the influence of non state actors in Afghanistan and to defuse the war like situation there .
neel123
31. Jul, 2010
Afghanistan was never, and will never be the end of the world for India.
However India will do all it takes to protect its own interest in Afghanistan, in view of the fact that the Afghan people are historically friendly towards India, and never liked the Punjabi dominated Pakistan…. the Afghans never accepted the Durand line … !
The Pakistani Army needs to accept that Afghanistan is not a “jageer” of the Pakistanis, and the Pakistani argument that India has had no role in Afghanistan does not have any takers, except perhaps in Pakistan.