PAKISTAN UNDER SEIGE
Posted on 04. Jul, 2011 by Brig Samson Sharaf in Pak-US Relations
Let readers not be misled. This is not the truth. The truth is that US is here to stay for an indefinite period. The corollaries of the plan secretly compartmentalised from each other for over a decade are now piecing together. The US game in the region has entered its most dangerous phase.
By Brig Samson S Sharaf
The international and national media are speculating events that would lead to the end-game in Afghanistan. Commentators world over are drawing different scenarios on how USA would hedge its interests in the region against Al Qaeda, its affiliates and nuclear proliferation (declared) and its political economy (China, Central Asia and Pakistan, undeclared). This debate was energised by the US operations that killed Osama Bin Laden followed by the decision by President Obama to reverse the ORBAT of 33,000 US surge troops Embedded within these debates are deliberate leaks to coerce Pakistan into pliability.
The debate is also a rationale for an existential victory (disrupt, dismantle and defeat Al Qaeda) and an elusive victory (secure Afghanistan within the context of Great Game). Also tucked between the failure of the Third Surge and the Victory Speech is Obama’s AF-PAK Strategy, a sticky mess that will not allow USA to let go; with the potential to sink the entire region with it. Perhaps, these events and the change of US Command in Afghanistan also bring into contention, the superimposed COIN Strategy (a lesson learnt from Iraq) and McChrystal’s painstaking JSOC Strategy. This strategy was framed under the tutelage of Dick Cheney to pursue objectives framed by the elitist group of US strategists including Henry Kissinger to control the region and tame Pakistan. Though JSOC covert operations began much earlier, it was officially given space to operate in Pakistan in 2007. This is precisely why I had written in an article titled ‘Time to eat Grass’ in 2008 that instability of Pakistan was the key to a successful US strategy.
It also brings into sharper focus the debate between the military experts and counter insurgency experts in the USA on how best to ensure US interests (not peace) in the region. Nothing can stop USA from declaring victory in a war fought for its own interests; and who cares if millions of Afghans and Pakistanis are left to contend with the mess left behind. But will US withdraw after having followed a plan relentlessly at a very high cost and intrigue?
Let readers not be misled. This is not the truth. The truth is that US is here to stay for an indefinite period. The corollaries of the plan secretly compartmentalised from each other for over a decade are now piecing together. The US game in the region has entered its most dangerous phase.
The State of Pakistan is equally responsible for the mess it allowed to be created within its regions. Unlike USA that has always had a flexible, well thought narrative to shape the environment, Pakistan has never cared or bothered to evolve a proper cohesive plan? The entire operation in the past ten years has been reactive and the sole domain of the Army. I do not think that the establishment ever evaluated alarm bells being raised by both Pakistani, foreign analysts and writers. It seems that having remained in constant touch with USA through military diplomacy and foreign office, the ability to think clearly was eclipsed by being an insider and exclusivity syndrome. Sermons by US ambassadors, visiting dignitaries and the façade of aid also played its part in lowering the guard. Hence, step by step, Pakistan allowed the entire backwash of US operations to be pushed into Pakistan under a misperceived strategic concept and false assurances. On the political front, the US compliant Pakistani government ensured the meltdown of Pakistan. It never took the basic measures to prevent the economic collapse, squandered opportunities arising out of natural disasters, ensured that energy crises persist in all its forms and manifestations, and keeps the political landscape destabilised. The rulers never gave an impression that the country faced serious challenges to its existence. Rather they have presided to a point wherein a complete melt-down becomes a possibility. Pakistan’s decision to roll back the Tethyan Copper projects and reluctance to resolve the Balochistan crises also fits the same plan. We now have a situation where the army is sucked into a difficult situation; a political dispensation that does not care for national interests.
If readers flash back to my article ‘The Wilting Obama Surge’ I wrote, “It appears that the ambitious third surge had a multi directional approach towards a military exit from Afghanistan based on half facts and assumptions derived from institutional biases. The hypothesis was too simplified through exclusion of both hardcore Taliban and Pakistan. Based on a misleading premise, it led to the logical”. In the next article titled, ‘The AFPAK Strategy’, I wrote “Nothing had worked as per the plan; neither the carrot, nor the stick nor stacks of cash for the breakaway Taliban…It was indeed at the heels of this failure that USA decided to co-opt Pakistan in the Strategic Dialogue diplomacy. Guns and Roses were offered to win over Pakistan’s military establishment towards a US driven operation in the region… but as events proved, Pakistan resisted the trap. US could not have its way and a new strategy became inevitable’. Rather than the military, the USA next chose to rely more on its civilian counter-part. I also explained that this strategy was based around JSOC, drones, CIA covert and sting operations. Already Raymond Davis, Kakul raid, Mehran Base and many incursions into Pakistan from Kunnar have come to pass. This is only the beginning and Pakistan army will be ultimately sucked into fighting its internal front.
In tandem with this destabilising strategy is the latest US NATIONAL DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION ACT FOR FISCAL YEAR 2012 that sanctions military operations beyond Al Qaeda and the Taliban to any associated forces that are engaged in hostilities against the United States. Counter proliferation efforts are also part of this Act. It also sanctions assistance for such operations to allied and friendly nations (India, Afghanistan and Pakistan). At a first glance apart from what is enunciated, the Act is also an implied threat to Pakistan. It is this pressure that USA will leverage with Pakistan to force the Taliban into negotiations on a timed continuum to extract the maximum dog-fighting from Pakistan Army. Further destabilisation will enhance US prospects in the region.
On the diplomatic front, USA made considerable progress. Tripartite talks in Tehran had US approval. The bulk of logistic traffic is already shifted to Iran and Central Asia. UN has been re-engaged in the peace negotiations in Afghanistan. Consequently the troops that would ultimately be withdrawn will not be the all the surge element but rather logisticians and its protective detachments, intelligence analysts and non essentials.
The lines across the Hindukush range will be kept secure with the Northern Alliance, New Afghan Security Forces, ISAF, Indians and maybe even Iran backed warlords. The South comprising Pashtun areas will be left open for attacks from the air, drones and selective military operations from fortresses at Bagram, Kandhar, Kost, Jalalabad etc. It is also ominous that USA has already abandoned large parts of Kunnar, Laghman and Nuristan where the anti Pakistan Taliban and Al Qaeda are based. These elements have already launched attacks in Mohmand, Bajaur and Dir. As Pakistan destabilises, this intensity and frequency will increase. Ultimately, drawing borders with blood, USA could have a corridor through Balochistan with twin objectives to contain Iran and tap the resources.
But will the US be able to achieve all these objectives? No one including USA have all the cards to bring stability to Afghanistan. If history is an indicator, they will not.
First, the Pashtun resistance in Afghanistan called Taliban will not allow any US bases in Afghanistan even for the sake of peace. History tells us that they will fight on. As Pakistan destabilises further, so will its resolve to gel with the forces fighting foreign occupation.
Secondly, other state actors in the region will also exploit these sentiments to advance their interests. These actors include India, Russia, China and Iran.
Thirdly, for nearly four decades, the Pashtun resistance in Afghanistan is emotionally tied to Pakistan. They cannot be used against Pakistan. However, the notion of a separate Pashtun state after the practical division of Afghanistan may materialise into a security threat to Pakistan.
Fourthly, nuclear capitulation of Pakistan will have to be a surgical procedure. Given the capabilities of JSOC, this is not possible. As a prelude, USA and UN will have to reach some agreement with the Pakistani establishment. But the moment such intentions become visible, Pakistan will explode. Military revolts and large scale insurrections cannot be ruled out. The WOT will over flow the brims of Pakistan.
USA would have paid the price of its open ended narratives in AFPAK.
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9 Responses to “PAKISTAN UNDER SEIGE”
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Brig Samson Sharaf
Rehmat
04. Jul, 2011
Pakistani nation has been under seige since 1948 when Zionist state was created in Palestine by the western powers who dumped their unwanted Jewish citizen in an Arab land.
“Stop Chasma or we will make a horrible example of you,” – former Jewish US secretary of state (Henry Kissinger) quoted threatening to Pakistan’s prime minister Z.A. Bhutto in The Islamic Bomb.
The nuclear joke is that there are eight nuclear powers – the US (10,500 nuclear bombs), Russia (10,000), France (464), China (410), Israel (200+), Britain (185), India (60+), and Pakistan (15-25) – but none of those nuclear bombs are called “The Christian Bomb” or “The Jewish Bomb” or “The Hindu Bomb”!
http://rehmat1.wordpress.com/2009/01/30/pakistan-under-zionist-attack/
babur
05. Jul, 2011
The world is and has been under seige now and always. It depends who you see as culprite and whom you belong is what it really matters.
In Arabic spring people rose against their muhammadan style terrorist rulers who they believe are the cause of their misfortunes. Women in Saudi Arabia drive cars on the chest of Prophit mohammad PBUH calling him FITNA who sealed the women's fate with his lies. Saudis believe Mohammad was the son of a Zin who violated his mom on daily basis as Quran alleged Women are raped by ZIN and Man alike. Since then women are under seige where ever the Quran does.
Pakistan has been under seige of the corrupt child molesting army since its inception. Kashmiri girl still sleep in tents after five years of earth quakes with holes in icy winters and army officers munching on donated Jewish, Hindu and Christian money robe their modesty in their beds in the name of Allah the most mercyful as the pain grows.
All the help Pakistanis need is to purify themselves with European biscuits laced with Pork Fate and Kafir's Zakat what they donate Muslims them to help themselves. Or to burn with nuclear bomb as muslims can only get salvation through Fire God to seek peace away from false mohammad in eternity.
The report suggest whole Arabia will become Christian with in a weeks time – when religious rights accorded – as moslim women's frustration with Zin Prophet grow.
Pakistan's bad luck is Islam which brought them to burning hell not the Kafirs as this Brig. claims who cheater Pakistan of donated money now stacked in foreign banks.
Salahudeen
05. Jul, 2011
Babur I think you have fallen on your head a few too many times as a child. Such nonsense you spew out. Doesn’t make any sense what you want to say, but nevermnd, your opinion is not important anyway.
abubaqar
05. Jul, 2011
baburs arse speaks again!
it would be well to adhere to the advice given by all prophets in history, you cannot bargain with kaffirs and they helpers.
paksitan must take a stand for law and order and its security by making friendly relations with like minded countrys. india, israel , america and britain should not be entertained in this venture, they are your enemies!
the mentality of the kaffirs is plain to see from history towards weak people, in hispaniola and the caribbean in 1520 to 1560 the kaffirs from the western world killed over 20 million people, they used to chop up the bodies to be sold for feeding to the dogs!!!!!!!!
has this mentality changed in all that time towards us muslims? we are under attack and being killed by the millions, how come the leaders we have do not see that????????
Vikram
05. Jul, 2011
Dear Brig. Samson Simon Sharaf,
The article was well written and your analysis is tip top.
I hope you can ignore the ignorant fools such as Babur above.
Islam is the only thing that holds our people together. Not the greedy politicians and corrupted Military. While you are from the military I aprreciate your impartial views.
babur
06. Jul, 2011
I know few Pakistani doctors who practised medicine in Mecca, their practice aborting pregrancies of teenage arab girls pragnated/raped by their own brothers, causins, uncles and even fathers and have sex with the victimized girls before abortion. Allah maaf ker desi, they say.
Allah and mohammad pbuh are fully pissed-off with Pakistanis. One Saudi Mullah said " When a Hindu Muslim (Pakistani) will sprinkle drops of Ganges water on Kaba Islam will come to an end. Arabs believe they have achieved their goal of destroying Prophet mohammad. Hense hatred and distrust of Pakistanis in Arabia and the world over, Bullshit.
Uss toan daro, ohh bahut dada ye, uss di maar toa daro Pakistaniyo kuffar na tolo….Brig. Sharaf, Katve Abubakar, Sulle Rehman and Muslle Vikram.
Natural law, Truth will prevail!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
06. Jul, 2011
In that case, ask China (or even India or who knows AFRICAN UNION) to take over whatever industries or defense positions the USA is holding. USA cannot be trusted, especially when the nation has links with your historical colonial forces which in fact once controlled India. The entire ethnotype will be finished with mixed marriages and all kinds of rubbish if the USA take over Pakistan.
” Thirdly, for nearly four decades, the Pashtun resistance in Afghanistan is emotionally tied to Pakistan. They cannot be used against Pakistan. However, the notion of a separate Pashtun state after the practical division of Afghanistan may materialise into a security threat to Pakistan. ”
The Pashtuns should be a great go between for negotiations between India and Pakistan. They are your cousins and if both India and Pakistan could ally yourselves to them, the US problem will no longer exist.
Remember :
Greater India = Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and India.
Greater Persia = Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran.
East Mediterranean = Syria, Jordan, Palestine, Turkey, Egypt *and* IF they behave, Israel.
The Islamic Caliphate = Oman, Yemen, Jordan, UAE, Saudi Arabia.
Greater Far East = China, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand
Throw the post-colonial-imperialist foreigners OUT and know and foster strong ties with your cousin-neighbours.
The below is just for you guys to think about :
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/191/polar1f.jpg/
Rabbit
07. Jul, 2011
Babur you are truly a ranting lunatic. Your posts are usually so utterly fanciful and quite off the wall, so twisted and lunatic and basicly hateful that it is easy to assume you are nothing but a Zionist lurker. You are a putrid little worm and about the only negative experience I ever have when visiting this excellent site. I wish you a speedy judgement day. May you be judged, dealt with and forgotten as quickly as possible.
babur
07. Jul, 2011
So Mr. Rabis arse disease doesn't like hate? What is it when Ahmadias are butchered, denied passport in Bullshit Pakistan, Shias burnt and Ismailis shot in Majlis and groups in Najaf, women – the mothers of humanity - humiliated, stripled naked stonned and raped with elders orders like Mukhtar Mai, you tell me Enlish writing run away shameless thieves what was it?. Why were you born to give only labour pain to a woman to further women hater Satan Prophets Bullshit around?
Some Kafir is waiting for you mullah's raped kid. You heard the name of Jews and Zionists but have not met them yet.
Ask false Mohammad that moment doesn't come in you life and your kids. Inshakkah punishment will be severe hard to bear. Whom Allah/Mohhamd have saved in Pakistan, Palistine, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Chechanya, Crotia name some……Won't be laughing Mr. Einstien when Kafir hit you.